Vuelta A Espana 2013 Predictions

There are a lot of reasons why I love La Vuelta. I listed a fair few of them in last year's Vuelta a Espana preview. The main two are probably the deliberate excess of the parcours and the mix of proven riders on  bad seasons having a last stab at salvaging their year, meeting upcoming talent who haven't been blooded in the two bigger grand tours. The combination of the two usually results in some fine racing.

2010? Great battle between Nibali, Anton and Mosquera. 2011? A strong, clever ride from an injury hit Wiggo preceding a scrap between Froome and Cobo. 2012? An attritional war that saw Valverde and Froome drop away before Rodriguez and Contador matched legs and wits, with Rodriguez winning the legs before Contador stole the race with wits. It might not always be pretty, or have have the strongest field, but the Vuelta is rarely dull.

After 2010, Vuelta watchers knew to keep an eye on Tejay Van Garderen long before everyone else. Ditto for Sagan after 2011, and prior to last year's event, we were pondering Quintana's chances. It'll be interesting to see who raises their status in this year's race. Meanwhile, Samuel Sanchez & Joaquim Rodriguez are there to give their teams and careers a final fillip, and Nibali will be trying to repeat his 2010 victory. It's shaping up nicely already, especially when  you look at the bonkers parcours: thirteen mountain stages, one more than last year's ridiculously mountainous route. A quick scan of the stages and their profiles turns up a greatest hits of recent Vuelta climbs, along with a few highlights from recent Tours de France.

Among those highlights, we have an early return to the Mirador de Ezaro, the incredibly short but torturously steep climb that Rodriguez won last year. There's a rerun of the Port de Envalira, Tour de France favourites Port de Bales and Peyragudes, a return to Pena Cabarga, and of course, the Angliru. The long, steep, misty, Wiggo-ruining Angliru that was once rumoured to be impossible for cyclists. About the only thing missing is Lagos de Covadonga, and you can't blame Unipublic for holding back a few treats for next year.

Just in case you're interested, this is Rodriguez and Contador having it out on Mirador de Ezaro last year:

Of course, any overly mountainous route can stifle the racing, like we saw in the 2011 Giro, but I doubt that's what will happen this year. Rodriguez must still be smarting from the way the victory was snatched out from beneath him last year, and must also be aware that every passing season reduces his chances of winning a grand tour. Poor Euskaltel can't really rescue their season, but their riders need to find new teams and Sanchez and Nieve have things to prove, with Nieve having shown flickerings of form recently. Sky's Colombians will be let off the leash for the first time, which will be a last hurrah in black and blue for the departing Uran. Nibali has won a GT already this season but he has enough quality and, hopefully, enough rest, to chase another. There are racers coming, and they'll be coming to race, even if us mere mortals look at the route and emit nothing more than a nervous whistle from the back of our bibshorts.

Podium Predictions
Who's going to win? Tough one. I've been saying for a while now that, at 34, I think Joaquim Rodriguez is probably on the wane. But you know what? I'm going to pick him. He slowly, methodically went from anonymous to podium during the Tour. He's strong on the big climbs and absolutely lethal on the short, monstrous ones like Ezaro and Pena Cabarga.  Ezaro is probably too early in the race and too far from the stage finish to be decisive, but still, this is Vuelta full of good omens for Rodriguez.

I'm going to discount both Nibali and Valverde from podium spots, Nibali because his early season campaign was so good, but his recent appearances have been lacklustre showings accompanied by the old saws that there's still time, things are where they should be, progress is being made etc. I'm discounting Valverde simply because we know he can fade, and we can be damn sure he has no luck. If there's a crosswind, he won't be in the Echelon, if there's a mechanical, he'll fluff the changeover. It's almost like karma is mad at him for some reason. Can anyone think of any reason why fate is pissed at Valverde? Something he might have done that's upset the Gods of Cycling?

I was actually expecting Rigoberto Uran to get the leadership nod from Sky rather than Sergio Henao, and one hopes we're not about to see yet another of Sky's patented dramas over pecking order. It seems unlikely, as the two are a complimentary pairing, and I'd be surprised not to see one of them on the podium. I'll go with Henao, but I wouldn't put it past Uran to find a way of taking some points to OPQS next year despite not being given the leadership.

I'm also going to disregard Scarponi's chances. I know, I know, I'm supposed to go through all the serious GC contenders and weigh them up sensibly, but really, I can't remember the last time he did anything particularly impressive. It's been two seasons since his last stage or overall win in any event, and he's become one of those anonymous, aging riders. In fact, in order to get all the accusations of ageism out of the way in one go, I'm also disregarding Ivan Basso, Chris Horner and Sammy Sanchez.

Other riders I'm supposed to give consideration to probably include Igor Anton, Roman Kreuziger and Bauke Mollema. Guys who have nipped at the heels of the podium placers and should be considered candidates to take a step up. Except I don't think they are... I think the latter two are third week faders,  and Anton is a luckless, crash happy type who will probably come into his own at the end of the race at exactly the point where two preceding weeks of skidding and yo-yo-ing have put him into irretrievable arrears.

Which leaves my third podium spot up for grabs. When you see riders win stages in devastating fashion, it's easy to assume that they will improve to the point at which they can seize a grand tour, which is why the romantic in me ponders predicting a podium spot for a Thomas De Gendt, or a Domenico Pozzovivo, but the realistic part of me (not to mention the part that has seen Pozzovivo time trial and descend) thinks it's unlikely. For consistent performance over three weeks, combined with proven ability to distance competitors, I'm thinking Carlos Betancur. His Giro ride made me expect big things, and this Vuelta might be where it comes good.

So, my podium picks are Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur. I'm thinking stage wins for Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde and maybe Mikel Nieve.

EDIT: Wow, these predictions went South pretty quickly, didn't they? Mea Culpa.

Just in case you're interested, my Vuelta team in Road.cc's fantasy league has most of the names I've pegged:

Thomas De Gendt (VCD) 

AR  Value: 14.4  Form: 0.00

Carlos Alberto Betancur (ALM) 

GC  Value: 29.5  Form: 18.00 

Domenico Pozzovivo (ALM) 

KM  Value: 12.8  Form: 7.20

Winner Anacona Gomez (LAM) 

DS  Value: 5.8  Form: 0.00

Jelle Vanendert (LOT) 

DS  Value: 3.0  Form: 0.00

Pablo Lastras Garcia (MOV) 

DS  Value: 7.6  Form: 0.00

Rigoberto Uran Uran (SKY) 

KM  Value: 20.6  Form: 1.00

Joaquin Rodriguez (KAT) 

GC  Value: 39.0  Form: 24.00 

Mikel Nieve Ituralde (EUS) 

KM  Value: 16.1  Form: 16.80 

Vuelta a Espana 2011 Preview: Route & Riders

In my admittedly unfashionable opinion, last year’s Vuelta a Espana was the best of 2010’s grand tours. While it lacked the controversy of the Tour’s chaingate and the enormous breakaways and redemptive victory served up by the Giro, it more than compensated for it with on the road action.

While its bigger brothers left us debating the absence of Contador’s sportsmanship and Vinokourov’s tactical savvy, the 2010 Vuelta was all about Philip Gilbert blasting up a Malagan precipice, Igor Anton’s two stage wins and devastating crash, and the battles on Lagos De Covadonga and the newly discovered Bola Del Mundo.

Vincenzo Nibali pulled out an intelligent win in a hard fought race over an interesting course, a combination that made you wonder if the Vuelta had finally stepped out of the shadow of its French and Italian counterparts. Of course, the Vuelta has had false dawns before-wins by Jalabert in 1995, Zulle in 1996 and Ullrich in 1999 had you thinking that the race had become prized by the men who usually give it their all in July rather than September -but this time we reckon the sun is set to shine for a good long time. This year’s route is just as interesting as last years, there are some exciting contenders and hey, we get live daily coverage on ITV 4, so the riders have the added incentive to ride hard and avoid being the butt of Gary Imlach’s withering jabs.

The Route

As is traditional these days, there’s stacks of climbing, minimal time trialling and a few stages that look more like a Spring Classic than a GT stage. As is equally common these days, at least one of the mountain stages is somewhat blunted by disposing of all its climbs before it's half done, and another will probably be left to the chancers while the GC men keep their powder dry for the monster that follows it. Nevertheless, there are plenty of pivotal looking stages.

Stage 1: Benidorm Team Time Trial.

Like a holidaymaker in Pataya, the opening time trial is a bit twisted and likely to be exposed along the beaches, but for all its technicalities, the 13.5K opener is too short for anyone to lose really serious time. Except for Euskaltel, of course. They’ll somehow manage to lose a shedload.

Stage 4: Baza-Sierra Nevada.

A summit finish on an Hors Categorie climb on stage four means that that the sprinters will be fighting elimination before they’ve even finished tightening their cleats, while the GC men will have to show their cards early.

Stage 10: Salamanca TT.

47 kilometres against the clock with nothing that resembles a climb and very little in the way of twists and turns, there’s a chance here for strong time triallists like Menchov and Wiggins to wipe away losses and build a cushion. It will need to be a bloody big cushion though, given what’s still in store...

Stage 11: Verin-Montana Manzaneda.

Two 3rd Cats and a 2nd Cat will weaken the rider's legs before the new climb of Montana Manzaneda. It takes nearly 30K to climb just under 1800 metres-this isn’t brutally steep, but it's loooong and draggy and likely to live as long in the riders legs as their memory.

Stage 15: Aviles-Angliru.

For a comparatively new climb, the Angliru dominates the Vuelta. Since its first appearance in 1999, Alto Del Angliru is the first name people look for each year when the route is announced.

The opening 6k are merely tough, but the final 6 are evil. The average gradient never drops below 12%, wavers frequently between 13 and 17%, and peaks briefly at 23%! Even the best climbers can be reduced to a crawl on the Angliru, and it tends to be attritional rather than tactical. The pace will drop, even team cars will struggle, and if there’s rain there will be all sorts of wheel slipping, bike weaving agony. Igor Anton proved he can handle the most sadistic climbs back in May, and I reckon he’ll use the Angliru to stamp his name on this year’s Vuelta. If he hasn’t fallen off by then.

The Riders

Vincenzo Nibali

The defending champion oft-touted next-big-thing-in-stage-races, Nibali’s a good but not explosive climber, a middling but not disastrous Time Trialist, and an exhilarating descender. You can shake him off in the mountains but he doesn’t fall too far behind, and his refusal to lose more than a few seconds sees him in good stead when everyone else is taking a minute one day and losing 45 seconds the next. His steady pursuit of Ezequiel Mosquera up Bola Del Mundo last year was the same sort of gutsy defensive riding that we’re all praising Cadel Evans for, having marked his rivals for three weeks. The only trouble is, Evans has nearly a decade on Nibali. What looks canny on an older man looks a little dull on Nibali, and I doubt that conservative tactics will see him in red a second time. I reckon he’ll be one step down this year, in second.

Igor Anton

He can climb with the best of them, and his victory on the Mt Zoncolan in this year’s Giro proves that he can climb on the worst of them. With the rider’s facing up to an ascent of the preposterously vicious Alto De Angliru, Igor Anton’s experience of winning on cycling’s sado-climbs will see him in good stead. On the other hand, he falls off a lot. Really a lot. He’s already crashed out of two Vuelta’s, and spent most of one Tour repeatedly picking gravel out of his legs. I reckon he’ll finish the Vuelta in first, or in hospital.

Michele Scarponi

He’s had a great set of results in stage races this year, so it’s a little unfair that when I think of Michele Scarponi I don’t think of him standing on the second step of the Giro’s podium, I think of him giving away the farm by tearing after Contador’s very first attack on Mt Etna and being utterly unable to sustain the chase. In that, he’s no different from anyone else in cycling, but where everyone else rode conservatively and kept the mystery alive, Scarponi had made it clear that the top step was beyond him. Of course, there is no Contador at this Vuelta, but there’s not likely to be much fear of Scarponi either. I reckon he’s looking at third.

Joaquim Rodriguez

Joaquim Rodriguez is just about the only rider whose uphill accelerations are scarier than Alberto Contador’s. Sadly for Rodriguez, he doesn’t have Alberto’s ability to repeat the trick time and time again. I reckon he can get away from anyone else in this Vuelta, but when he does so he won’t build big enough time gaps to trouble the podium.

Bradley Wiggins

How long can you maintain your best form? Four weeks, maybe five? And that’s assuming you can keep busy - something that hasn’t been possible for Wiggins, despite being back on the bike within a week of his collarbone surgery. The Wiggins we saw in the Dauphine might have had a shot at the podium, but two months and one fracture later, we’re guessing that Top Ten is the best he can hope for, and if he manages that we’ll be proper proud of him.