Vuelta A Espana 2013 Predictions

There are a lot of reasons why I love La Vuelta. I listed a fair few of them in last year's Vuelta a Espana preview. The main two are probably the deliberate excess of the parcours and the mix of proven riders on  bad seasons having a last stab at salvaging their year, meeting upcoming talent who haven't been blooded in the two bigger grand tours. The combination of the two usually results in some fine racing.

2010? Great battle between Nibali, Anton and Mosquera. 2011? A strong, clever ride from an injury hit Wiggo preceding a scrap between Froome and Cobo. 2012? An attritional war that saw Valverde and Froome drop away before Rodriguez and Contador matched legs and wits, with Rodriguez winning the legs before Contador stole the race with wits. It might not always be pretty, or have have the strongest field, but the Vuelta is rarely dull.

After 2010, Vuelta watchers knew to keep an eye on Tejay Van Garderen long before everyone else. Ditto for Sagan after 2011, and prior to last year's event, we were pondering Quintana's chances. It'll be interesting to see who raises their status in this year's race. Meanwhile, Samuel Sanchez & Joaquim Rodriguez are there to give their teams and careers a final fillip, and Nibali will be trying to repeat his 2010 victory. It's shaping up nicely already, especially when  you look at the bonkers parcours: thirteen mountain stages, one more than last year's ridiculously mountainous route. A quick scan of the stages and their profiles turns up a greatest hits of recent Vuelta climbs, along with a few highlights from recent Tours de France.

Among those highlights, we have an early return to the Mirador de Ezaro, the incredibly short but torturously steep climb that Rodriguez won last year. There's a rerun of the Port de Envalira, Tour de France favourites Port de Bales and Peyragudes, a return to Pena Cabarga, and of course, the Angliru. The long, steep, misty, Wiggo-ruining Angliru that was once rumoured to be impossible for cyclists. About the only thing missing is Lagos de Covadonga, and you can't blame Unipublic for holding back a few treats for next year.

Just in case you're interested, this is Rodriguez and Contador having it out on Mirador de Ezaro last year:

Of course, any overly mountainous route can stifle the racing, like we saw in the 2011 Giro, but I doubt that's what will happen this year. Rodriguez must still be smarting from the way the victory was snatched out from beneath him last year, and must also be aware that every passing season reduces his chances of winning a grand tour. Poor Euskaltel can't really rescue their season, but their riders need to find new teams and Sanchez and Nieve have things to prove, with Nieve having shown flickerings of form recently. Sky's Colombians will be let off the leash for the first time, which will be a last hurrah in black and blue for the departing Uran. Nibali has won a GT already this season but he has enough quality and, hopefully, enough rest, to chase another. There are racers coming, and they'll be coming to race, even if us mere mortals look at the route and emit nothing more than a nervous whistle from the back of our bibshorts.

Podium Predictions
Who's going to win? Tough one. I've been saying for a while now that, at 34, I think Joaquim Rodriguez is probably on the wane. But you know what? I'm going to pick him. He slowly, methodically went from anonymous to podium during the Tour. He's strong on the big climbs and absolutely lethal on the short, monstrous ones like Ezaro and Pena Cabarga.  Ezaro is probably too early in the race and too far from the stage finish to be decisive, but still, this is Vuelta full of good omens for Rodriguez.

I'm going to discount both Nibali and Valverde from podium spots, Nibali because his early season campaign was so good, but his recent appearances have been lacklustre showings accompanied by the old saws that there's still time, things are where they should be, progress is being made etc. I'm discounting Valverde simply because we know he can fade, and we can be damn sure he has no luck. If there's a crosswind, he won't be in the Echelon, if there's a mechanical, he'll fluff the changeover. It's almost like karma is mad at him for some reason. Can anyone think of any reason why fate is pissed at Valverde? Something he might have done that's upset the Gods of Cycling?

I was actually expecting Rigoberto Uran to get the leadership nod from Sky rather than Sergio Henao, and one hopes we're not about to see yet another of Sky's patented dramas over pecking order. It seems unlikely, as the two are a complimentary pairing, and I'd be surprised not to see one of them on the podium. I'll go with Henao, but I wouldn't put it past Uran to find a way of taking some points to OPQS next year despite not being given the leadership.

I'm also going to disregard Scarponi's chances. I know, I know, I'm supposed to go through all the serious GC contenders and weigh them up sensibly, but really, I can't remember the last time he did anything particularly impressive. It's been two seasons since his last stage or overall win in any event, and he's become one of those anonymous, aging riders. In fact, in order to get all the accusations of ageism out of the way in one go, I'm also disregarding Ivan Basso, Chris Horner and Sammy Sanchez.

Other riders I'm supposed to give consideration to probably include Igor Anton, Roman Kreuziger and Bauke Mollema. Guys who have nipped at the heels of the podium placers and should be considered candidates to take a step up. Except I don't think they are... I think the latter two are third week faders,  and Anton is a luckless, crash happy type who will probably come into his own at the end of the race at exactly the point where two preceding weeks of skidding and yo-yo-ing have put him into irretrievable arrears.

Which leaves my third podium spot up for grabs. When you see riders win stages in devastating fashion, it's easy to assume that they will improve to the point at which they can seize a grand tour, which is why the romantic in me ponders predicting a podium spot for a Thomas De Gendt, or a Domenico Pozzovivo, but the realistic part of me (not to mention the part that has seen Pozzovivo time trial and descend) thinks it's unlikely. For consistent performance over three weeks, combined with proven ability to distance competitors, I'm thinking Carlos Betancur. His Giro ride made me expect big things, and this Vuelta might be where it comes good.

So, my podium picks are Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur. I'm thinking stage wins for Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde and maybe Mikel Nieve.

EDIT: Wow, these predictions went South pretty quickly, didn't they? Mea Culpa.

Just in case you're interested, my Vuelta team in Road.cc's fantasy league has most of the names I've pegged:

Thomas De Gendt (VCD) 

AR  Value: 14.4  Form: 0.00

Carlos Alberto Betancur (ALM) 

GC  Value: 29.5  Form: 18.00 

Domenico Pozzovivo (ALM) 

KM  Value: 12.8  Form: 7.20

Winner Anacona Gomez (LAM) 

DS  Value: 5.8  Form: 0.00

Jelle Vanendert (LOT) 

DS  Value: 3.0  Form: 0.00

Pablo Lastras Garcia (MOV) 

DS  Value: 7.6  Form: 0.00

Rigoberto Uran Uran (SKY) 

KM  Value: 20.6  Form: 1.00

Joaquin Rodriguez (KAT) 

GC  Value: 39.0  Form: 24.00 

Mikel Nieve Ituralde (EUS) 

KM  Value: 16.1  Form: 16.80 

Vuelta a Espana 2012: Opening Salvos

So, by day three the Vuelta has seen almost as much action as the Tour managed in three weeks. Marvellous. So far, everything is going according to expectations: JJ Cobo and Jurgen Van den Broek have pretty much dropped out of contention already, while Contador, Froome, Rodriguez and Valverde look to be the strongest men in the race.

Slightly less expected was the drop down the GC of Thomas De Gendt and Nairo Quintana, two riders thought to be likely top ten finishers who are now 2:54 and 3:09 down respectively. The other riders to watch (Gesink, Mollema, Anton) are still at the happy end of the GC.

What was really interesting about today was just how lively it was. Contador launched six attacks, Rodriguez  had a go as well, and Valverde fought to the last to secure his stage win and Red Jersey. As for Froome, I'm really not sure what to think. It's all very well being the most explosive climber at a Tour de France full of diesel climbers, but I always thought that the high-octane climbing explosions of Rodriguez and Contador would leave him slobbering in their wake.

As it turns out, I was wrong about that. But not in a way that I find completely reassuring. There aren't many people who can get back onto Contador's wheel after he's attacked once, let alone six times. The fact that Froome managed to labour his way back to Berty repeatedly and then pip him for third place (and a 4 second bonification) suggest that he's both faster and less fatigued than I expected him to be. Contador never got more than about fifteen bike lengths on him, and the gap never stayed open for more than about 25 seconds.

Sadly, Froome's heroic gap closing looks a little less impressive when you consider that Valverde and Rodriguez were doing a much better job of holding Contador's wheel. More importantly, Froome can afford to dig into the red and hunt Contador down on a 6Km climb, but chasing like that on the long climbs could be ruinous-in those circumstances he'll need the sort of sub-zero nerve that lets him carry on at a pace he can maintain, trusting that it will be enough to reel Contador in over the course of a half hour climb.

Froome's Time Trialling ability will be enough to nullify anything short of a legendary mountains performance from Valverde or Rodriguez, but it won't give him as much of a buffer over Contador, who's more competent against the clock than Purito or Piti. If Froome's to succeed he needs to walk a very thin line between not letting Contador get too far away from him on the climbs, but trusting in himself enough that he won't burn himself out chasing.

What is reassuring is that while Contador still has the ability to attack over and over again, he seems to be just a fraction off his top acceleration. Every time he attacked today you could see him pull the gap open, whereas prime Contador could leap up the road in a way that had you wondering if the Eurosport highlights editor were experimenting with axial cuts.

Essentially, we're still pretty much where we were three days ago-watching the two favourites, expecting neither to be at their peak, and wondering whether it's easier to recover from fatigue or inactivity. The fear that the extremely mountainous route might provoke a canny waiting game seems to have been unfounded-the big names have thrown bombs at each other on a 6Km lump on day three, so it's a safe bet that they're planning to make a fight of it. Can't wait.

Put not your trust in Euskaltel riders.

In 2003 Iban Mayo tore up Alpe D’Huez so fast on his way to a stage win and eventual sixth place overall that in the space of the 39 minutes and six seconds it took him to climb the alp he became the repository for all of Europe’s cycling hopes and, more importantly, all of mine.

At that time, all the riders who seemed capable of defeating Lance Armstrong were either busy having nose jobs, enjoying a heady cocktail of black forest gateaux, muesli and amphetamines or were riders yet to fully mature and sadly destined to smash themselves to bits or dope their pets rather than put up a fight. Consequently, Iban Mayo became our totem, our hope for ending the reign of that glowering, graceless Texan. And what did he do? He retired halfway through his next two Tours, suffered from 'the kissing disease', and eventually tested positive for EPO.

What does this waffle have to do with today’s Vuelta, I hear you ask? Technically nothing, but I am a blogger, and therefore have staked my paper-thin self-esteem on the idea that my wandering thoughts can be just as relevant as the cold hard facts supplied by proper journalists. My feeling in this case is that Euskaltel have let me down again.

After Mayo I went cold on the orange clad squad, who’d been a loose favourite of mine ever since the days when lowly second division teams like Benfica (the cycling team not the football club), Brescialat and the like were profiled in the pages of Cycle Sport magazine. After Mayo, I could never warm to the flaming carrots, and barely noticed the Olympic win and Tour performances of Sammy Sanchez.

Then along came Igor Anton. He looked strong in the 2010 Vuelta, winning two stages and having a forty odd second advantage in the red jersey until he was knocked down like fire damaged Nikes in a Croydon sports shop by a bit of two-by-four in the road. He came good again earlier this year at the Giro d’Italia, winning on the Mt Zoncolan, one of the most sadistic climbs in cycling. Given that he then began resting and preparing for the 2011 Vuelta, which also contains a fairly sadistic climb in the form of the Alto del Angliru, things looked good for him, and I embraced the Euskaltel boys once again and picked Anton to win the Vuelta. Perhaps I’m just a jinx?

He looked a little iffy on yesterday’s climbs, but I thought nothing of it. I assumed that their lack of importance in the overall scheme of things meant he probably wasn’t giving them his best.

Today, however, you couldn’t kid yourself. The early climbs were clearly as tough as yesterday’s as was obvious from Stijn Devolder’s wobbling and weaving that had me momentarily convinced I was watching the previous stage’s highlights. But Devolder is a squad rider for whom lightning has struck twice. Surely the serious climbers like Anton would be ok?

Then came Sierra Nevada. Not that steep, but really, really long. And there’s Igor Anton, sitting at the back of the bunch. Still at the back. Still. Those little gaps between riders that open and close naturally on the corners? They’re not closing naturally for Anton. He’s clawing them closed. He might as well be sinking his fingernails into the tarmac and scrabbling up the hill without the bike.

Eventually he dropped off entirely which was a shame, but not half as bad as what happened next. Three teammates came back to pace him up the rest of the climb, and for some time the foursome were seen working as a slow moving unit, occasionally wafting past the odd lone rider falling from the pack, but before long it became embarrassingly apparent that Anton couldn’t keep up with his teammates either, and they returned to the pack, leaving Igor to labour on alone, eventually coming in 1:38 down on the bunch and 2:44 down on the new red jersey, Sylvain Chavanel. More importantly, he’s 1:51 down on race favourite Vincenzo Nibali.

Of course he’s got three flat days to recover before the next mountains. There’s even the chance he might be riding himself into form for the nastier climbs ahead, but these aren’t the bad old days when massive deficits could be overturned by pulling a few ‘cold ones’ from the fridge. You’d have to say Anton’s chances for the overall are gone.

When it comes to humiliating days in the mountains I’m reminded of poor Ivan Basso’s long and televised diarrhoea attack in the snowy Gavia pass in 2005, where he lost over forty minutes and the Maglia Rosa. He did at least manage to secure a face-saving stage win a few days later, and that’s now what I’m hoping Anton will do.

In the parts of the race that still mattered both Vincenzo Nibali and Bradley Wiggins looked extremely comfortable, almost nonchalant, as they occupied the vital spots at the front of the group and led up the Sierra Nevada. While attacks from Chris Anker Sorenson and Daniel Moreno were able to sweep past the breakaway remnants, they never managed to get their gap beyond 14 seconds. That Moreno was far and away the quicker man was obvious from the start, and it must have been all he could manage not to start his victory celebrations around 3K out when it became obvious that Sorenson couldn’t grind him off his back wheel.

Finally, there’s Cav. I’ve always thought that three Grand Tours in a year is a big ask even if you are only hunting stage wins. Add to that the temperature of nearly 34 degrees in the shade and it’s no wonder Cav climbed off. Given that he was sharing a room with Matt Goss, who retired with stomach troubles yesterday, no one would be particularly surprised if it turns out that the Manx Missile has got a touch of Basso Belly. The question now is, how does he prepare for the Worlds? The GP Ouest France is one possibility, as is the Tour of Britain, but having been booked onto La Vuelta, he’ll need to ask the organiser’s permission to start a different race for fear of a fine and fifteen day ban. This is widely considered nothing more than a polite formality, so we should see Cavendish in action somewhere cooler and flatter before too long.